
Maybe I'm just not in a great mood, but I'm getting a bit sick of everyone and his dog giving the same two bits of advice for marketers in a recession:
1. Don't even think about cutting your budget, spend more!
2. Shove all your spend online, it's the ROI medium
It's not that I necessarily disagree with these bits of advice, but they already seem to have turned into the mantra for agency folk. Playing devil's advocate (as I so frequently do), let's just think about the two statements.
There are several studies showing that brands who maintained or increased their investment during a recession were more likely to be more successful in the years that followed than those brands who decreased their share of voice. It seems quite logical too - if competitors are dropping their spend, then you can get a disproportionate SOV.
The problem is that this is a bit simplistic because we haven't faced an economic crisis of this magnitude since before marketing studies were being conducted, so what happened 'last time' isn't necessarily the best indicator of 'this time'. When you see companies going bankrupt that 12 months ago most people probably considered very solid - I think most CEOs and CFOs will want to ensure they are still operating in 5 years rather than thinking about what their market share might be if they increase their spend now. There's also a category consideration. The additional SOV that you get during the recession is surely going to have different levels of impact depending on the product category. Having twice the SOV for luxury cars when nobody is buying probably won't really make that much differece, but I can see how for FMCG, it seems logical.
When it comes to online, you can't disagree that online lends itself to fantastic analysis. What bugs me though is that just because you can count it, doesn't mean it's always going to be the best option. There's lots of evidence to show that for many mass market products, mass media channels offer better value than online. I know that search and performance marketing are very controllable and effective channels, but surely they also perform well for well known brands that consumers have confidence in. Dropping all of your brand investment may not be a wise mid-term approach. There's also the lack of evidence - does anybody really know that shifting money to digital is the best thing to do in a recession? Even during the last recession 10 years ago, digital marketing and online consumer behaviour was totally different.
Maybe (just maybe) it could be in some of the ad agencies interests to push online because of the production dollars they can bring in?
Anyway, that's my thoughts. As I said, I don't necessarily disagree with the advice, but think we have a responsibility to be a bit more thorough and considered before making sweeping generalizations.
I'll get off my soap box now...